Season 5 Creighton Cup Preview

For the fifth consecutive season -- and therefore every season to date -- the Haymakers will play for the Creighton Cup. Named for baseball's first true superstar, this (imaginary) trophy is awarded to the champions of my Hall of Fame Strat-O-Matic league. The lordly Haymakers are vying for their third title, but in order to cement their standing as the league's preeminent franchise, they'll have to defeat a spunky Blue Legs team that has rebounded from their historically terrible performance back in Season 4. 

Starting this year, I've expanded the championship to a best-of-five series. Let's compare the teams in three key areas before I make a final prediction!

Offense

• Blue Legs: Team captain and second baseman Nap Lajoie was a solid MVP candidate, clubbing three homers (tied with Sam Crawford for the team lead) and generating great production from the three-hole on a team that finished second in the league with 3.67 runs per game. The Legs' lineup is full of high-OBP hitters -- Billy Hamilton, Wee Willie Keeler, and Dan Brouthers, to name a few -- who wear pitchers down by working deep counts.
• Haymakers: At 4.29 runs per game, the Haymakers sported the league's most potent attack; it was a down year for offense, however, and in no other season would 4.29 runs per game have led the league (or even come close). Still, the Haymakers managed to hit 12 home runs, tied for the most by a team in a regular season. Cap Anson hit five of those dingers, which tied the single-season record set last year by George Davis. Anson had a monster campaign and is sure to run away with the Position Player MVP this year. Jesse Burkett hit three bombs of his own, and along with Joe Kelley and Sam Thompson, the Haymakers boast some phenomenal hitters in the top four spots, but it gets thin after that.
• Advantage: Haymakers

Defense

• Blue Legs: The Legs were so-so in the field, and like the Haymakers they were far inferior to the Canaries but well ahead of the iron-gloved Resolutes. Third baseman Jimmy Collins had yet another fine season and did not commit a single error, nor did catcher King Kelly, who is known more for his bat than for his glove. 
• Haymakers: Anson played error-free ball at first base, and backstop Roger Bresnahan was also perfect in the field. There isn't much else to say about the Haymakers' defense; if they win, it's going to be because of their offense or their pitching.
• Advantage: Tie

Pitching

• Blue Legs: Prior to the season, the Legs flipped stud infielder George Wright to the Canaries for starter Pud Galvin, the reigning Playoff MVP. With Keefe and Nichols as their big arms, the defending champs didn't see the need to hang on to Galvin. Big mistake! The portly hurler turned in a brilliant season, finishing 5-3 in 11 starts. His 3.34 ERA was fifth in the league and better than both Keefe and Nichols. Galvin anchored the Legs' pitching staff while erstwhile ace Old Hoss Radbourn sorted things out. Radbourn ended up finishing 5-5, winning his last four decisions in a season that culminated in an astounding 18-inning complete-game shutout. Behind their two starters, the Legs have the reliable Al Spalding for long relief and tightrope-walking Vic Willis as their closer. 
• Haymakers: When the Haymakers finished the season allowing just 3.04 runs per game -- the best rate in league history by more than half a run -- it certainly wasn't because of their fielding. All the credit goes to the team's pair of aces, Cy Young (7-2, 2.12 ERA) and Mickey Welch (6-3, 2.41 ERA), who finished second and third, respectively, among the league's ERA leaders. Amos Rusie once again handled the closer duties, posting a 1-1 record with five saves in six chances; if not for that one blown save, Rusie would have turned in the finest season by a reliever that we've yet seen. The only weak link here is Jack Chesbro, who failed to capitalize on last season's breakthrough performance.  
• Advantage: Haymakers

Prediction

The Haymakers went 15-9 and the Blue Legs went 13-11, so only two games separated them in the standings. Looking the expected win percentages, however, the teams are nowhere near as close. With their measly +1 run differential, the Legs had an expected win percentage of .506 (vs. actual .542). Meanwhile, the Haymakers set a single-season record with a +30 differential that gave them an expected win percentage of .666 (vs. actual .625). Anything can happen in a five-game series, but the Haymakers have been the better team all year. I'm going with Haymakers in four.