Virtual Front Porch Pages

Thursday, March 28, 2019

Small-Sample-Size Alert!

Each team in my nineteenth-century league has now played four games. In baseball, that's not a lot. Intellectually, I know that the sample size is so small that I can't draw meaningful conclusions about the relative strengths of my three teams...but I can't help it! It feels like the Canaries are significantly better than the others. They're sitting at 3-1 with a +5 run differential. The Haymakers are next at 2-2 with a -2 differential, and the snakebitten Blue Legs are 1-3 with a -3 differential. (For the boys in blue, the only highlight of the season has been King Kelly's home run -- the only one hit in the league thus far!) I've made a minor swap of pitchers between the Canaries and Blue Legs to try to even out the staffs a bit, but otherwise I'm just going to keep playing and see what happens. Are the Canaries really good, or just really lucky?

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